NOVUS CC 2025: Weekly Articles
NOVUS CC 2025: Weekly Articles
Urbanization and Flood Risk: Striking a Balance Between Development and Sustainability
Istanbul's rapidly growing city (Source: MediTravel)
March 17, 2025 • ZACH PANLILIO
Cities are key drivers of economic growth. But, with the construction of more cities comes a higher rate of urbanization. In the Philippines, urbanization has been steadily increasing in the past decades. According to a report from the United Nations, this statistic has gone from 45.3% in 2010 to 51.2% in 2015, and 54% in 2020. This rapid rate of urbanization poses challenges to human settlements and urban development. Population growth results in uncontrolled urban expansion, thus straining resources and basic services within its peripheries (UN-Habitat, 2023). In a city such as Istanbul, which experiences rapid urbanization, unregulated expansion, and increasing flood vulnerability due to its high population growth, increasing urbanization led to a 32.9% increase in the population affected by floods, a 22.3% rise in potential economic damage, and a 13.6% increase in total flood risk (Ozer & Yalçıner Ercoşkun, 2024). This shows that rapid urbanization is not only unsustainable; it also leads to flood risk.
One flood-causing consequence of rapid urbanization g is surface runoff. Surface runoff is defined as the flow of water from land to the ocean as the amount of rainfall exceeds the soil's ability to absorb it (Ramke, 2018). Urbanization replaces soft, absorbent soil with cement and rough surfaces. Impervious surfaces associated with urbanization reduce infiltration and increase surface runoff (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2025). Because of this, much larger quantities of water rush into roadways at a faster rate, leading to clogging and overloading. Since many cities still rely on outdated drainage systems, the inability to respond to this sudden rush of water leads to flooding. Flooding from surface runoff causes issues not only for the population but for the environment as well– examples of which include soil erosion, water pollution, and habitat destruction. It washes pollutants into water bodies, disrupts ecosystems, and overwhelms wetlands, leading to long-term ecological consequences.
Flooding in Porto Alegre of the Lagoa dos Patos in Brazil (Source: Wikipedia)
The occurrence of urban flooding often coincides with land subsidence—a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024). This phenomenon has several consequences. Firstly, it decreases the elevation of land areas, leaving urban settings even more vulnerable to flooding. For example, Bulacan province is considered the Philippine city most severely impacted by land subsidence, with the highest recorded sinking rate at 109 millimeters per year (Sulapas et al., 2024). Secondly, land subsidence may lead to water scarcity. During this occurrence, groundwater may either be contaminated or over-pumped, affecting water supply greatly. Lastly, land subsidence leads to structural damage to urban areas. Buildings and infrastructure can crack, tilt, or settle unevenly due to the sinking ground, leading to structural instability and repair costs.
While it may seem negative, urbanization is—of course—not a bad thing. However, there must be a way to mediate between development and sustainability. There have been solutions to remedy the consequences already suffered by areas undergoing rapid urbanization, as well as ways to prevent the issue from occurring in the first place. While some countries have already implemented these solutions, they remain merely concepts in many others, awaiting proper adoption and execution. A part of this is the notion that better urban planning must be put into place. This includes constructing in areas that are not flood-prone and expanding green spaces. Governments and systems in place should take into consideration the long-term sustainability of the planning and its eventual benefits to society. To address flood risk, the improvement of drainage systems should also be taken into consideration. This can be done through regular maintenance and assessment of sewer systems. Modernizing drainage systems can also be done using innovations such as permeable pavements, smart sensors, and modular systems.
Overall, rapid urbanization is a process that has deep impacts on the frequency of flooding, the environment, and the safety of cities. While urbanization may prove to have numerous benefits, it is important to take into consideration the externalities of which it may impact other aspects of society, particularly the environment. Striking a balance between development and sustainability is crucial for effective urban planning, ensuring that governments, institutions, and participants in the NOVUS Case Competition implement solutions that promote both progress and resilience.
References
Asian Development Bank & Berse, K. (2022, February). Regional: Advancing Inclusive and Resilient Urban Development Targeted at the Urban Poor Philippines: Urbanization Trends, Hazard Exposure and Sectoral Realities: A Macro View of Philippine Cities (Supplementary Report). Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-documents/51325/51325-001-tacr-en_5.pdf
Lula Oficial. (2024, May 5). Flooding in Porto Alegre of the Lagoa dos Patos in Brazil during May 2024 [Photograph]. Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_flooding#/media/File:05.05.2024_-_Sobrevoo_das_%C3%A1reas_afetadas_pelas_chuvas_em_Canoas_-_53700500641.jpg
MediTravel.com. (2019, July 27). Istanbul’s rapidly growing city [Photograph]. Retrieved from https://meditravel.com/istanbul-what-to-visit/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2024, June 16). What is subsidence? NOAA's National Ocean Service. Retrieved February 26, 2025, from https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/subsidence.html
Ozer, B., & Yalçıner Ercoşkun, Ö. (2024). View of Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Flood Risk by RS and GIS: A Case Study on Istanbul-Esenyurt. Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs. Retrieved February 26, 2025, from https://ijcua.com/ijcua/article/view/395/607
Ramke, H.-G. (2018). Collection of Surface Runoff and Drainage of Landfill Top Cover Systems. Science Direct. Retrieved February 14, 2025, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/runoff
Sulapas, J., Ybanez, A., & Marasigan, K. (2024, September). Ground Subsidence In Major Philippine Metropolitan Cities from 2014 to 2020. Science Direct. Retrieved February, 20, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1569843224004618#:~:text=The%20results%20revealed%20a%20maximum,features%20in%20vertical%20motion%20maps.
UN Habitat. (2023). UN-Habitat Philippines Country Report 2023. UN Habitat. Retrieved February 26, 2025, from https://unhabitat.org/sites/default/files/2023/06/5._un-habitat_philippines_country_report_2023_final_compressed.pdf
United States Environmental Protection Agency. (2025, February 7). Urbanization - Stormwater Runoff | US EPA. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Retrieved February 14, 2025, from https://www.epa.gov/caddis/urbanization-stormwater-runoff